Trask Avenue

The GOP’s base has been energized by the inclusion of Paul Ryan to the ticket as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential candidate. The renewed sense of purpose among some Republicans is palatable. They are of the belief that Ryan is the serum to what ails the Romney campaign and, more importantly, the country. Finally, the right person is on the national ticket, the one who represents what the party is really about, the one who will help secure the necessary votes to remove President Obama from office. Unfortunately for these folks the selection of Paul Ryan cannot fix a couple of critical truths.

The Vice Presidential candidate does not win elections. Let’s say that again. The Vice Presidential candidate does not win elections.

History, that pesky barometer, has consistently demonstrated VP candidates have little positive impact on how people end up voting. Some may even argue the wrong choice hurts more than the right choice helps. Either way does anyone really think Joe Biden boosted Obama in 2008? Did Jimmy Carter squeak by Gerald Ford in 1976 because Walter Mondale was on the ticket? In 1988 did people vote for George Bush or Dan Quayle? The fact is those who vote for a ticket based in large part upon the running mate are statistically insignificant. When the voting booth curtain closes and people are faced with a choice they pick who they want to occupy big chair. Nothing else. Ryan, for all the hoopla swirling around him, is not the panacea the Republicans need. If he was he would have been encouraged by the party leaders to run for President. But he was not because the GOP’s power brokers realize his crossover appeal is limited. And that highlights a more distressing concern for the Romney campaign.

Paul Ryan on the ticket does nothing to sway independent and undecided voters, especially those within the party. It may seem difficult to believe, but there are Republicans with more moderate political ideologies who are not in lockstep with the direction their party has taken over the past 15 years or so. Those folks tend to get drowned out by others who think yelling louder somehow makes them more important. While a less radical running mate may not by itself win the undecideds, a more radical one certainly pushes them further away. A Paul Ryan candidacy does nothing to embrace these people, the ones who may ultimately decide the race. Ryan primarily appeals to the segment of the party which would sooner chop off their arms than vote for Obama. If the Republicans feel the need to placate these people – the most right of the right – they have a serious problem. With less than three months until the election no party should need to pander to their rock solid base to ensure their vote. But the choice of Paul Ryan aims to do just that. That should trouble Republicans, not energize them.